The Green Green (costly) Homes of Future Wales

Analysis of the Better Homes report

Prior to the 2021 Senedd election, First Minister for Wales Mark Drakeford vowed to put the ‘climate crisis’ at the heart of ‘everything we do’. He pledged to build low carbon affordable homes, but what he omitted to tell the population of Wales was how everyone will seemingly be required to decarbonise and retrofit their homes during the next 30 years.

Wales was the first country in the world to declare a climate emergency in 2019. Very soon afterwards there followed a report by the Decarbonisation of Homes in Wales group entitled, ‘Better Homes, Better Wales, Better World’, which appears to have gone unreported upon in the media. However the BBC narrative is beginning to prepare us for something of a financial bombshell, with reports that homes in Wales are amongst the worst in western Europe for pumping money out of the door and will therefore suffer more from energy poverty.

According to the foreword of the report with its curious choice of title – which has echoes of that now overused mantra Build Back Better – the advisory group sought advice from ‘experts’ at the Centre for Behavioural Change at University College London and dramatically states that the planet is facing its ‘sixth mass extinction event’. Their conclusion is that with an average EPC rating in Wales of Band D, it is now imperative that the country takes action to reduce emissions from homes.

The summary of recommendations suggests that Welsh Government should commit to pursuing a 30 year decarbonisation programme in conjunction with UK government, third sector organisations, banks and building societies and states:-

‘It is acknowledged that the challenges of heat and the energy performance of homes will involve the decarbonisation of energy grids, improvements and replacement of building systems, or improvements to the fabric (walls, floors, roofs, windows and doors) of homes themselves. In Wales, the costs of this will be tens of billions of pounds by 2050.’

‘Early adopters’ of the scheme should be incentivised to retrofit homes to a target of EPC Band A.  A Home Log Book should be funded by Welsh Government to guide energy decisions and investments. Additionally, a ‘robust regime’ is advocated for log books for all homes from 2025 for selling, letting, planning applications or when installing an energy efficiency measure. The log books would be ‘free for an initial period’.

Recommendation 4 mentions a variety of resources and measures including grants, taxation (always a favourite of government), regulation and programmes to encourage investment and action.

‘Better Homes’ acknowledges the need for many homeowners to apply for financial support and emphasises the need for this process to be as straightforward as possible. It also outlines the desirability for establishment of a ‘Green Finance Group’ in Wales. Levers for change such as MEES (Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards) are discussed since already it is not permissible to commercially let a property below EPC Band E.

Another telling quote mentions re-grading Council Tax in 2030 based on a home’s performance against its optimised potential - as identified in the Home Log book. ‘It could encourage people to make energy efficiency changes to their homes. If Council Tax could be aligned to the energy efficiency of homes, it would require a very significant lead-in time in advance of implementation. This would allow time for piloting and field trials, for getting people used to the idea and giving them enough time to plan for the change.’ Interestingly this has not been mentioned as part of the rationale for the forthcoming changes to council tax announced weeks ago.

‘Better Homes’ discusses the possibility that Welsh Government will at a later date need to consider a set of ‘disincentives for inaction’ and highlights the need to create an environment where improving the energy performance of homes is the ‘societal norm’.

The scope of the Advisory Group was to look specifically at ‘regulated’ energy used in homes i.e. space heating, water heating and lighting (the term ‘useless heaters’ springs to mind). Naturally, as with every future plan in Wales, the report had to align with the Wellbeing of Future Generations Act 2015 (Wales’s agenda 2030 equivalent) and its five Ways of Working and seven Wellbeing Goals.

The elephant in the room must surely be the amount of non-residential ‘carbon emitting buildings in Wales. Will already struggling ‘non-essential’ small businesses be required to also decarbonise? If this is the case, it will inevitably be another- perhaps the final - nail in the coffin for many small and medium sized enterprises. Particularly when one also considers the recent announcement of new Draconian council tax rules for holiday lets and the impending costly energy bills this winter.

The NHS Wales decarbonisation delivery plan already outlined a feasibility study to be carried out by 2022 for an increasing number of remote clinical consultations. This is apparently due to the fact that it is the ‘largest carbon emitter in public sector Wales’, so the closure or repurposing of an increasing number of NHS buildings looks probable.

Where will Dictator Drakeford’s micromanagement and green zealotry end? Clearly he is not content with deciding what we could buy during 2020, initiating Universal Basic Income, forcing the Welsh language upon us and now telling us how to drive in a bid to cut car use. Already there have been reports of councils locking away their mowers to help nature and tackle climate change’. Will Mr Drakeford come for our petrol strimmers and lawn mowers too?